The Chaotic Nature of Change
Luis Ayala, Editor of "Got Rum?" magazine, Rum Consultant and Founder of The Rum University.
Given the recent turmoil surrounding the “Brexit” vote, I opted to replace the piece I had ready for this month’s editorial with what I hope is a more fitting article on the topics of chaos and change.
I can only imagine the reaction to the news across the Royal British Navy fleet, when the Admiralty started to replace the beer ration with rum in 1655. An even bigger shock, I imagine (I wasn’t drinking at the time), when in 1970 it announced the end of the rum ration.
Europeans in general, and the British in particular, have often been at the forefront of change. From feats of colonial conquest, to promoting the development of scientific knowledge (The Royal Society comes to mind), their presence has always been felt around the globe.
I am not claiming to understand, chastise or praise the reasons and motivations behind the news-generating vote of last month, but I am pointing out that change always comes along with a hefty dosage of chaos. Most people, when confronted with chaos, become uneasy and feel un-safe, which is to be expected. And just like when the rum ration was abolished, those directly touched by the events attempt to predict the impact of the changes on their future. But chaos, by its own definition, prevents us from determining the outcome:
“Chaos: When the present determines the future, but the approximate present does not approximately determine the future”.
As a consequence, those with the time and energy (and the worries) conceptualize and describe a plethora of scenarios, some optimistic, some pessimistic. The stock markets, politicians and their constituents react and, at the end of the day, adjust to the new realities…until the next change and subsequent chaos occupy their minds.
The abolition of the rum ration in 1970 did not, as many had uttered, represent the death of “naval rum”. Today -ironically- we have more commercial examples of navy inspired rums than ever before, perhaps a testament to the enduring legacy of rum’s life at sea.
Will the “Brexit” vote affect how much foreign rum is sold in the UK and how much of the rum currently there is sold outside? Yes, it is likely to affect both, but highly unlikely to represent the end of either.
Again, I repeat that I am not disparaging the impact of current events, I’m only reminded of how societies have and will always continue to overcome obstacles.
Cheers,
Luis Ayala, Editor and Publisher